RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE

 

NATL. HURRICANE CENTER TROPIC OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081758
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low 
pressure system located a couple of hundred miles east of the coast 
of South Carolina is gradually becoming better defined. Although 
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently 
disorganized, environmental conditions could briefly become 
marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical 
characteristics by Saturday night and early Sunday. By early next 
week, the low is expected to interact with a frontal boundary, 
which should end the opportunity for any subtropical or tropical 
formation. The low is forecast to meander offshore the Carolinas 
today, and then slowly move back toward the west-northwest and 
northwest on Saturday, bringing the system closer to the coast of 
North Carolina. Interests along the coast of North and South 
Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of 
development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty 
winds will affect eastern portions of the Carolinas through the 
weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled 
to investigate the system Saturday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart