...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SETTING UP FOR THIS EVENING FOR OKLAHOMA...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

   Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
   MINNESOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes, widespread damaging wind gusts, and very large hail are
   forecast this afternoon and evening for portions of Oklahoma and
   north Texas.

   ...OK...
   An intense and fast-moving shortwave trough over western NM will
   pivot into the southern Plains this afternoon.  Ahead of this
   trough, a surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen over western
   North TX and track northeastward into central OK this evening. 
   Strong and strengthening low-level wind fields in the warm sector of
   the low will transport Gulf moisture northward, with dewpoints in
   the mid-upper 60s expected across the region.  A combination of
   ample sunshine and slowing cooling mid-level temperatures will yield
   MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg by peak heating, with a slowly
   weakening cap.

   Current indications are that storms will begin to rapidly intensify
   after 21z near the surface low in southwest OK.  Some of this
   activity will be north of the associated cold front, with a primary
   risk of large hail.  However, morning CAM solutions continue to
   suggest that discrete supercell development is possible near the low
   and along the trailing dryline.  These storms will be in an
   environment of rapidly strengthening low/mid level wind fields and
   vertical shear, steep lapse rates, and intense large-scale forcing. 
   Forecast soundings/hodographs in the warm sector would favor the
   potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and significant
   damaging winds as storms track across central OK - mainly after
   dark.  

   Storms will become more numerous as they race northeastward into
   eastern OK during the evening.  A few discrete supercells may
   persist, along with an increasing threat of QLCS-associated wind
   damage and tornadoes.  It appears likely the storms will begin to
   weaken as they move into parts of western MO/AR around midnight.

   ...TX...
   Farther south, model consensus shows scattered thunderstorms
   developing this evening along the dryline across northern and
   central TX - especially as the cold front overtakes the dryline. 
   Strong forcing aloft and strengthening wind fields will pose a risk
   of a scattered supercells along this corridor, capable of a few
   tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

   ...MN...
   An upper low over MN will move slowly eastward today, helping to
   initiate scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the Arrowhead
   region.  Extensive low clouds in this area will limit daytime
   heating and destabilization.  However, a few of the low-topped
   storms may be capable of hail or brief tornadoes for a few hours
   this afternoon.  Storms should track northward and into Canada
   around dusk, ending the threat.

   ..Hart/Lyons.. 10/10/2021

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