...A LOOK AT THE LATEST 12Z GFS MODEL, ENSEMBLES, UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPS...

 

Reviewing the models, wind shear and sea surface temps at present.

• The 12z GFS, courtesy of (Tropicaltidbits) is flip flopping back a forth now its back to the right of previous tracks.  We will continue to see this as long as we don't have a storm center.  Even with a storm center models tend to do this as well.  What I still don't believe is seeing a strong too a major hurricane in the Gulf this early in the season.  At most a Tropical Depression, strong tropical storm or a lower end hurricane is not out of the question. However, that will depend on upper level conditions, and sea surface temps as this so call storm moves into the Gulf if at all.  I will keep you posted!
  

• The GEFS, ensemble models, courtesy of (Weathernerds) shows a more right side of previous tracks with a bit of a spread.  Once again no telling where this so call storm system will end up, and if it will develop at all.  We remain vigilant!
  

•  As for ECENS ensemble models, courtesy of (Weathernerds) shows a shift to the left and then a turn to the north.
  

• Upper level environment is still not favorable over a portion of the Eastern Gulf at this time.  Its a bit more favorable over the Northwest Caribbean and favorable over the Southern Caribbean.
  

• Sea Surface Temps are favorable over the South and Northwest Caribbean and not so favorable north of the Yucatan and the Central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
  

 RTW

12z GFS Model

 

12z GEFS Ensemble Models

 

12z ECENS Ensemble Models

 

Upper Level Wind Shear

Sea Surface Temperatures