...THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS) MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE ALIGNED ITSELF WITH THE EURO MODEL...

 

Well finally the GFS and its shenanigans of developing a strong to major hurricane seems to have ended for now.  The track is more inline with storms that develop in May in southern Caribbean.  Storms this early in May are usually westward moving storms over that track over Nicaragua, Honduras and the Yucatan and a times track northwest, northward or even north east over the Gulf of Mexico.  So for now nothing to be concerned about.  I will continue to monitor the Caribbean.

Tropical Waves, Upper Level Conditions and Sea Surface temps:

• Tropical Wave #1 seems to be enhancing showers and storms over the Southern Caribbean and there seems to be a low pressure behind the Wave which was in the same area yesterday as well.  There are no signs of organization at this time.
  

• Tropical Wave #2 is moving through and area of Sahara dust and there are some storms ahead of the wave mainly associated with the inter-tropical conversion zone (ITCZ)  There are no signs of organization at this time.
  

•  Upper Level Shear seems to be unfavorable in a portion of the Gulf and the West Atlantic East of Florida.  The Central Atlantic also has unfavorable upper level winds.  Development is not expected the Friday. 
  

• Sea Surface temps are favorable for East Pacific development but in the Atlantic basin not so favorable unless development occur south of 10° north longitude.

RTW