Wednesday, May 18, 2022

...THE CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE IS DEVELOPING NEAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

 

As the Global forecast models been hinting at it seems like it is happening.  The tropical Wave and low in this area are helping with the formation of the Central American Gyre.  This will enhance precipitation over Central America producing flash floods along the coast and mountainous areas.  Mud Slides could occur in mountainous areas so its not out of the question.  Read National Hurricane Center Special Features below.

RTW

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Global models continue to suggest a Central American Gyre (CAG)
forming near the western Caribbean by Fri, and then gradually 
shifting westward across Central America through early next week.
CAG tends to enhance SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough
well north of its typical position. This will increase convergent
surface winds and advect abundant moisture northward, triggering 
widespread strong convection over Central America. Expect heavy 
rainfall from the southern parts of Guatemala and Honduras, 
southward to Panama. Extreme rainfall is possible near the Pacific
coast of these countries, and also over southern Honduras and NE 
Nicaragua. This will increase the potential for flooding, 
especially near valleys in mountainous terrain. Please refer to 
products issued by your local weather service for more 
information. 

American Meteorological Society

Central American gyres (CAGs) are large, closed, cyclonic circulations that occur during the rainy season (May–November), which can yield exceptional rainfall leading to catastrophic flooding and large societal impacts. A reanalysis-based climatology of CAGs is developed from an algorithm that distinguishes CAG cases from other systems. This algorithm identified CAG cases based on circulation intensity, a broad radius of maximum winds, and the existence of closed, Earth-relative, cyclonic flow. Based on these criteria, 47 CAG cases were identified from 1980 to 2010, featuring a bimodal distribution of cases with maxima in May–June and September–November.  

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