GFS MODEL VERY PERSISTENT, SO NOW WE MONITOR IT CLOSELY!

 

Well the GPS has been very persistent with the development of a tropical cyclone in the Southern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.  The model has also been rather bullish at times showing major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.  I think that is a bit over doing it but no telling now a days with these storm system. 

The last time we had a hurricane come out of the Southern Caribbean was May 18, 1970 Hurricane Alma which strengthened rapidly between the Cayman Islands and Western Jamaica with winds up 85 mph reported by Hurricane Recon Plane.  

Alma then tracked northwest across Western tip of Cuba and turn back toward the northeast encountering wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico weakening Alma down to a tropical depression before it made landfall near Cedar Key Florida on May 25, 1970 proceeded north northeast through Georgia and the Carolina's dumping allot of rain.

So I will keep a close eye during the next two weeks as long range forecast call for a storm around May 21, 2022.  Stay tuned to my daily updates for the latest.

Below Alma maps you will see area I'm monitoring and today's GFS model run starting with 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z.

RTW 

Hurricane Alma's track, Satellite Image and rainfall map