Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ...STILL MONITORING THE EAST PACIFIC FOR DEVELOPMENT...NEW WAVE ADDED TO OUTLOOK...

I am still monitoring the East Pacific for development and possible cross over into Bay of Campeche (B.O.C.). The 12z Euro track a low northeast into the and so does the CMC models. The GFS seems a bit confused and uncertain to its track. I will continue watch and let you know.

RTW

National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook

000

AXNT20 KNHC 251748

TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
160UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been added to the 1200 UTC surface map 
with an axis along 12W extending from 01N into West Africa up to 
13N.  The system has a well-defined near-surface circulation as 
seen in the METEOSAT visible imagery. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted north of 03N east of 18W.

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 35W from 00N to 
09N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The surface and 700 mb signatures 
for this system are very weak. No convection is present at this 
time with this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along near 76W from 17N 
southward, moving westward around 10 kt. While there is not a 
significant surface signature to this wave, it is weakly 
depicted by the Grand Cayman and Santo Domingo 700 mb 
rawindsonde observations. The wave is producing scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection south of 11N between 75W 
and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the West African coast near 
12N17W to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from there to 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 03N, east of 
18W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough reaches across 
Central America and extends from 10N83W to 10N76W over the 
Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted south of 11N between 75W and 82W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a squall line extends from the Louisiana coast 
southwestward to the NE Mexico coast near 24N98W. Buoy 42002 at 
26.1N 93.6W reported 33 kt sustained and gusts of 43 kt out of 
the NNW at 1620 UTC. Northwest of the squall line, a 1006 mb 
wake low is present at 27N97W. Elsewhere across the Gulf SE 
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 NM of a line from 
30N91W to 25N95W, while scattered moderate convection is noted 
north of 28N between 85W-87W. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, fresh southerly return flow will prevail today 
across the basin as the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico 
tightens. Winds will pulse to strong near the N coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula this evening. A cold front is expected to move 
into the western Gulf tonight with moderate to fresh southerly 
winds ahead of it as it moves across the basin. The front will 
weaken as it reaches the NE Gulf on Fri. Showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front through Thu 
night. The front will be followed by gentle to moderate winds 
and slight to moderate seas Fri and Sat as weak high pressure 
ridging settles over the basin. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently moving across the south-central Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the 1022 mb Bermuda High and lower 
pressure associated with the eastern North Pacific monsoon 
trough is forcing moderate to fresh E trades across the 
Caribbean. Outside of the convection in the SW Caribbean 
associated with the eastern North Pacific monsoon trough and the 
tropical wave, no other significant convection is occurring 
today. Seas are 3-5 ft over the E Caribbean and 5-7 ft over the 
central and W Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will 
maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the 
Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight. 
Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela 
at night through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves 
currently moving across the eastern Atlantic.

A 1011 mb occluded low north of our waters near 35N47W in 
between a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 32N76W and a 1030 mb Azores 
High near 40N24W is contributing toward generally gentle to 
moderate E trades across the tropical Atlantic. Aside from the 
convection associated with the monsoon trough/tropical wave, no 
other significant convection is occurring today. Seas are 3-6 ft 
across the tropical North Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure ridge extending 
from near Bermuda to northern Florida will remain in place 
through tonight. The high pressure will shift eastward Thu 
morning through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move 
across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient 
will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across the 
region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to 
fresh east winds over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas. 

$$
Landsea