...QUICK EAST PACIFIC STORM INVEST 91EP...MODELS BUT DO NOT TELL MUCH...

 

Well the models are out but they do not offer useful information.  We don't have an actual tropical cyclone with a closed surface circulation for model accuracy.  Ensemble models are all over the place, so know telling where this system will go if at all.  I will continue to monitor in the coming days as models still hint at a tropical cyclone developing.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252314
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed May 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show some signs of 
organization in association with a surface trough located a few 
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and 
a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this 
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward 
at 5 to 10 mph.  Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Central portion of the eastern Pacific: 
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast 
of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow 
development through Thursday, but upper-level winds are forecast to 
become less conducive for further development by Thursday night or 
Friday while the system moves little. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown