...TROPICAL UPDATE 05-27-2022...

 

Invest 91E could get name sometime today and formation chances are now at 90% within 48 hrs and within 5-days.  We may see advisories issued by NHC in the next update.

Models still turn this system back toward the northeast so we continue to monitor.  If system makes landfall along the southern Mexican coast it will fall apart quickly as it moves over mountainous terrain.  Heavy rains and landslides are possible as this system moves inland during the next few days.  Some areas have already been seeing heavy rains and flooding from the outer circulation from this developing system.  Stay tuned for more updates.

RTW 

Note this may change after I publish its a late update so click on the NHC link below to stay up to date on the latest.

National Hurricane Center 

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271728
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 250 miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions 
are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression 
is expected to form later today or Saturday while it moves westward 
at 5 to 10 mph.  This system is expected to turn northward and 
strengthen while it moves toward southern Mexico over the weekend. 
Tropical-storm-force or hurricane-force winds are becoming 
increasingly likely along the coast of southern Mexico early next 
week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this 
disturbance.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall, 
which could cause flash flooding, is possible along coastal sections 
of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Berg