...EYE'S ON THE TROPICS UPDATE 06-24-2022...

 

Good morning!  I am still seeing the GFS and EURO tracking INVEST 94L westward toward the Windward islands and the Caribbean due to a strong Azores High ridge steering the storm west.  This system now has a Med 60% chance of development within 5-days.  Development of this system will more than likely occur as it approaches the Windward Islands or as it moves over into the east Caribbean.  

As for the CMC model it is still on a west-north west track across Cuba and now south of Florida and over the Florida straits.  This would be due to a weakness in the high off the east coast of the U.S.  These stationary fronts are trapped by Azores high and highs over the eastern U.S..

Just remember that long range forecast are not very reliable and are subject to change in future model run.  I will continue to monitor and will keep you posted.

RTW