...A REVIEW OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MODEL RUN...

 

Lets take a look at previous and latest model run.

• Both the EURO and GFS model seems to have a low latitude westerly track due to a strong Azores high pressure in the Atlantic.  Both show a cat 2 hurricane making landfall along the northeast Nicaragua, Honduras coast.

• The CMC seems to be the only consistent model with a northwest track possibly picking up on a weakness in the Azores high pressure ridge off the East coast.  This would be due to Mid to upper level lows associated with two stationary fronts producing Gale force winds east of Carolina's and Virginia.  This weakness allows for a turn toward the northwest as the ridge retrieves east and leaves a gap between Bermuda and the east coast .  Both the 00z and 12z show basically a cat 1 over the western Bahamas almost the same track.  

Please note that this is a long range forecast and is subject for error.  Still to far to tell where this system will end up.  However, it is becoming more definite that this system will develop as it tracks closer to the Lesser Antilles and the east Caribbean.

RTW