Even with strong upper level shear, this wave is a fighter. It continues to fire up strong thunderstorms that are producing flash floods in Puerto Rico and should spread over Dominican this evening. Ahead of wave wind shear persist accept for the Gulf of Mexico where there is no shear. Ensemble models don't even show this wave.
RTW
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Colin, located along the coast near the border of
South and North Carolina.
1. Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and portions of the Leeward Islands. Although
shower activity has increased a little today, significant
development of this system is unlikely due to strong upper-level
winds. This disturbance is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett 
No Sign of the wave in the Ensemble models
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