...ATLANTIC STORM INVESTIGATION WILL RUN INTO SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST...

 

ATLANTIC STORM INVEST HAS MORE LINGERING SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST.  IF THIS SYSTEM WERE A LOW LATITUDE SYSTEM THEN THERE WOULD BE LESS DRY AIR TO CONTEND WITH AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  

UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME AND SO IS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPS.  HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND MIDDLE LEVELS DEFINITELY NOT FAVORABLE AT ALL.

ANY WAVE THAT MANAGES TO PICK UP SOME MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  

I THINK THAT MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THIS MONTH INTO SEPTEMBER WILL BE THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS, CARIBBEAN AND GULF IF THIS SAHARA DUST CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211708
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions could support some slow development of this system while 
it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the 
eastern and central tropical Atlantic for the next several days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto