Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ...SO FAR MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH NORTHWEST OF 91L AND A TURN NORTH AND EAST...AS FOR THE INVEST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST SOMEWHAT OF THE SAME...

SO FAR MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH NORTHWEST OF 91L AND A TURN NORTH AND THEN EAST...AS FOR THE INVEST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST MUCH OF THE SAME ACCEPT EARLIER.

GFS, CMC, AND EURO ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT TURN AS WELL. PLEASE NOTE THAT LONG RANGE FORECAST ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT FOR ERROR BEYOND 5-DAYS. SO THESE MODEL FORECAST ARE NOT SET IN STONE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE UPDATES!

THE EURO MODEL SHOWS A WEAKER 91L AND GFS A STRONGER SYSTEM. GFS TENDS TO EXAGGERATE INTENSITY.

FRONTS TRACKING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM WEST TO EAST ARE LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF 91L. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRODUCING SHEAR NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 91L IS ALSO PRODUCING THIS WEAKNESS AND ALSO SHEAR AHEAD OF 91L.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE WEAKEN SOME AND 91L HAS SLOW DOWN A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH DRY AIR AND EVENTUALLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.

SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH ALL THESE ATMOSPHERIC OBSTACLES IN THE WAY. DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE LIKELY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW 91L HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH THREE CLUSTER OF STORMS AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE ARE MY OPINIONS AND NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NHC. FOR ACCURATE UPDATES ON THE TROPICS VISIT, NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301151
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental 
conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development 
of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical 
depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is 
forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 
to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward 
Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is 
located just off the west coast of Africa. Some gradual development 
is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical 
depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days. 
By late this week, the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler 
waters and further development is not expected. Regardless of 
development, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart