...STORM INVEST 97L FORMATION DECREASED TO 10-20%....I AM MONITORING SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING OVER THE NORTH GULF...

 

NHC HAS DECREASED THE FORMATION CHANCE FOR 97L AS ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION I WILL MONITOR A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT IS PRODUCING PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS, STORMS AND LIGHTNING.  

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUT LOOK IS AT A (SLIGHT) RISK FOR FLOODING RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS POSSIBLE.  NONE OF THE MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave 
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands has decreased since yesterday.  This system is expected to 
move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the 
tropical Atlantic during the next several days, and significant 
development is becoming less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch