...A NEW WAVE APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARRIBEAN DURING THE WEEK OF 26-30 OF SEPTEMBER...

 

NOW THAT FIONA WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WE WILL HAVE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO THE CARIBBEAN.  OCTOBER IS GENERALLY A MONTH WHERE WE SEE MORE STORMS AFFECT FLORIDA HISTORICALLY SPEAKING.

WE HAVE A WAVE SHOWING UP IN FORECAST MODELS AND SOME DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE.  THE GFS IS ALWAYS THE EXAGERATOR OF THE MODELS WANTING TO DEVELOP AND MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TRACK IT NORTH OVER FLORIDA.  THAT IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST AND I SAY IT IS PROBABLY BOGUS.  

HOWEVER, WE ARE SEEING SOME OTHER MODELS LIKE THE EURO AND THE ICON MODEL SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AND OTHER WAVES CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS.

HERE IS THE SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP FROM THIS MORNING.

Please Note I borrowed this surface map to draw on it.  

 06z GFS LONG RANGE FORECAST MODEL

ECMWF (EURO) MODEL

ICON MODEL

GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS POSSBILE LOWS FROM THE WAVE YOUR.

 GUESS IS AS GOOD IS AS MINE.

THE EURO MODEL ASLO SHOWS LOWS FROM THIS WAVE MOVING INTO THE GULF