Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ...STORM INVEST 91L CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR STORM AT ANYTIME...

EARLIER TODAY I NOTICED SATELLITE WAS SHOWING COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND A BETTER CIRCULATION. AIR FORCE RECON PLANE EARLIER FOUND A BETTER CIRCULATION AND LOWER PRESSURE. NHC SAYS THAT 91L COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING IS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZED.

THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO COMING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD, VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND.

MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. IN FACT ONE OF THE OUTLIER MODEL, THE UKMET CONTINUES TRACK FURTHER, WEST BUT NO TURN NORTHWARD.

EURO MODEL SHOWS A SLOWING OF OF 91L AND A WEAKER SYSTEM AND THEN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SHOWS A TRACK WEST AS WELL BUT A TURN NORTH AND EAST.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Danielle, located about 900 miles west of the Azores.

East of the Leeward Islands:
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier 
this afternoon indicated that the circulation associated with an 
area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the 
northern Leeward Islands has become better defined today, and the 
plane reported that surface pressures have fallen a bit.  If the 
showers and thunderstorms associated with the low persist through 
the evening, the system could become a tropical depression or 
tropical storm as early as tonight.  

The disturbance is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 
about 10 mph, passing near or just to the north of the northern 
Leeward Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the northern Leeward 
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple 
of days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress 
of the system.  Additional information on this system can be found 
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg