...DOWN TO TWO STORM INVESTIGATION...UPPER LEVEL SHEAR DISRUPTING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...

UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WILL SLOW DOWN ANY DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  LOOKS LIKE THE STORM INVEST IN THE CARIBBEAN MAY BE A CENTRAL AMERICA STORM SYSTEM IF AND WHEN IT DOES DEVELOP.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure stretching from the central Caribbean 
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development 
of this system over the next few days while it drifts northward. 
The system is then forecast to meander over the subtropical western 
Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are 
forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the 
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive 
for gradual development as the disturbance moves generally westward 
or west-northwestward into the central Caribbean early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart