...STORM INVESTIGATION AFTERNOON UPDATE...

 

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean 
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development 
of this system, and a subtropical depression could form while it 
drifts northward during the next couple of days. The system is 
then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to 
the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast to 
become less conducive for development by the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern 
Caribbean Sea this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally 
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart