...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP CARIBBEAN SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD....

 

LOOKING AT MODELS RUN AND HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE IN CONTROL TO THE NORTH.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM ON A WEST OR SOUTHWEST TRACK.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure extending from the eastern Caribbean Sea 
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A surface low 
pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern portion of 
the trough axis later today or tonight, and environmental conditions 
appear marginally conducive for some subtropical development. A 
subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days 
while the system moves northward, then meanders to the west or 
southwest of Bermuda. Over this weekend, upper-level winds are 
forecast to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern 
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion 
of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward 
into the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart