...INVEST 95L IS IN AREA OF LESS DRY AIR AND HAS A DESCENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...

 

STORM INVESTIGATION IS LOCATED IN A AREA OF LESS SHEAR AND LESS DRY AIR AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THE DRY AIR WEST.  THIS INVEST HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM AT ANYTIME.  

WE COULD SEE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE (PTC) ISSUED THIS EVENING AND WATCH AND MAYBE WARNINGS FOR THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 95L PATH AS WELL.  

ALSO I AM NOTICING IN ALL THE LATEST MODEL RUN FOR TODAY THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AS 95L MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  SO FAR MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SYSTEM, WHICH IF IT WERE TO MATERIALIZE, IT COULD ENHANCE THE STORMS FOR FLORIDA.  I WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS SOME ENSEMBLE MODEL SHOWS A DEPRESSION OR EVEN A TROPICAL STORM.  

REMEMBER FORECAST BEYOND 5 DAYS ARE SUBJECT FOR ERROR! 

MONITOR NHC FOR THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301747
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Caribbean: 
Earlier data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft indicated that the circulation is becoming better 
defined with an area of low pressure located over the central 
Caribbean Sea. The aircraft also indicated the system is producing 
winds of 35-40 mph to the north of its center. An additional 
increase in organization in the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity could prompt the development of a tropical depression or 
storm over the next day or so. Potential tropical cyclone advisories 
could also be required as soon as this afternoon, and interests in 
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this 
system as tropical storm watches or warnings could become necessary. 
The system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea over the next 
several days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is 
possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, 
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Western Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with 
an area of low pressure area located a little more than 100 miles 
northeast of Bermuda. In addition, satellite wind data suggest the 
system is now merging with a nearby frontal zone as upper-level 
winds increase over the system. Therefore, subtropical or tropical 
development is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin