...STORM INVEST 95L MOVING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR TO ITS WEST...

 

STRONG WIND SHEAR IS IN 95L PATH DURING ITS TRACK TO THE WEST.  HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS STILL STEERING THIS WEAK SYSTEM WESTWARD.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292343
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea. 
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled 
to investigate the disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican 
Republic, and Haiti through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Western Atlantic:
A low pressure area located about 70 miles west-northwest of 
Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity to 
the northeast of the center as it continues to interact with a 
nearby frontal system.  Upper-level winds are increasing over the 
system, and the low is forecast to merge with the front by early 
Sunday as it moves generally eastward. Therefore, the chances of 
subtropical development of this system appear to be decreasing. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven