...STORM INVEST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS BEING SHEARED BY A MID TO UPPER LOW NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM...

 

IF THIS STORM INVEST DEVELOPS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM ON A WESTERLY TRACK AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  

NOTE THIS IS NOT A FORECAST ITS MY OBSERVATION AT THIS TIME, AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AND WEEK.  SO I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

RTW

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase today near a broad 
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are conducive for 
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
in a day or two.  Further development should become less likely 
late this week due to increasing upper-level winds.  The system is 
forecast to move generally northwestward over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern 
Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Slow development is possible during the next several 
days while the wave moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, 
reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by 
midweek and the western Caribbean over the weekend.  Interests in 
the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake