...STORM INVEST 91L HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO MED CHANCE 40% WITHIN 5 DAYS...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022341
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.  
The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward 
or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization 
in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles 
east of the Windward Islands.  Further development of the wave 
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next 
few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, 
reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by 
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake