...TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 1 2022...

 

OTHER THAN A STORM INVEST NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS THE TROPICS ARE QUIET!  

THE STORM INVEST HAS A 20-30% FORMATION CHANCE AND IT LOOKS LIKE A TRACK NORTHWEST AND BACK TO THE WEST IN THE COMING DAYS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM I WILL MONITOR IS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN, WHERE THERE IS LOW PRESSURE.  SOMETIMES THESE SYSTEM WILL FIND A WAY TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT SITS IN THE AREA.  MODEL NOT SUGGESTING MUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY FOR OCTOBER MORE THAN THE EURO MODEL ENSEMBLE.

THE REMNANT OF IAN WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THEN EVENTUALLY OUT TO SEA.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011757
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Advisories on Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Ian, located near the border between North Carolina and 
Virginia. 

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
This activity has changed little in organization over the past day 
or so, but environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
gradual development of this system. A tropical depression is likely 
to form during the early to middle part of next week while the 
system moves westward and then turns northwestward at 5 to 10 mph 
over the eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center 
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, 
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, in addition to on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin

 

EURO