...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORM INVESTIGATIONS EAST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOW THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL...

 

GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST ON DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  AS FOR THE INTENSITY IT IS BULLISH AS USUAL DEVELOPING A MAJOR STORM.  I AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THAT PART OF THE FORECAST, HOWEVER THE WAY WEATHER HAS BE BEHAVING YOU CAN'T RULE IT OUT.

THE EURO DOES NOT SHOW DEVELOPMENT BUT THE CMC, NAVGEM, AND THE ICON  MODEL SEEM TO BE ONBOARD WITH THE GFS, THAT SOMETHING WILL DEVELOP IN THE CARIBBEAN.  WE CONTINUE TO WATCH!

RTW

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have decreased since yesterday in 
association with a well-defined area of low pressure located 
just west-northwest of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are 
becoming less conducive for development, and the chance of this 
system becoming a short-lived tropical depression appears to be 
decreasing. The low is expected to move northward towards cooler 
waters and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds by 
tonight, which should limit further development. Regardless of 
development, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are 
expected over Bermuda though this morning. Interests in Bermuda 
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form midway between Puerto 
Rico and Bermuda in a couple of days. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual subtropical development of 
this system while it meanders over the southwestern Atlantic through 
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or 
west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 

Forecaster Hagen/Brown 

ENSEMBLE MODELS

UNFAVORABLE SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME!