...NHC GIVING ONE OF THE STORM INVESTIGATION A HIGH CHANCE FOR FOMRATION WHILE I KEEP AND EYE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE HAS GIVEN ONE OF THE STORM INVESTIGATION A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVLOPMENT SEE BELOW FOR NHC DISCUSSION.

AS FOR THE GFS, IT CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT SOMETHING MAY DEVELOP IN THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.  ALTHOUGH THE GFS TENDS TO OVER EXAGERATE INTENSITY OF STORMS, AND FORMATION OF STORMS; WE SHOULD NOT DISREGARD THE POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION IN THE CARIBBEAN.  

ALSO THE ICON WHICH IS NOT A GOOD TROPICAL SYSTEM MODEL BUT DID PERFORM WELL WITH IAN, ALSO HINTING ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  LETS NOT PANIC, BUT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICS UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH. 

RTW

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Satellite and Bermuda radar images indicate that the low pressure 
system located about 100 miles east-southeast of Bermuda now has a 
well-defined center and is producing a relatively concentrated area 
of showers and thunderstorms. If the thunderstorm activity 
persists near the center, the disturbance will likely become 
a tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves 
west-northwestward and passes near Bermuda.  After that time, the 
system is expected to turn northward and move toward cooler waters 
and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should 
limit additional development.  Regardless of development, periods 
of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda 
through tonight.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress 
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form north of Puerto 
Rico over the southwestern Atlantic in a few days.  Thereafter,  
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual subtropical 
development of this system while it meanders over the southwestern 
Atlantic through the early part of the weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi