DRY AIR STILL INTURDING INTO NICOLE'S INFLOW. HOWEVER, LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT THE INFLOW IS GRADUALLY THINNING AND CLOSING OFF THE DRY AIR FROM INTRUDING. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE DRY AIR BEING DISPERSED AS NICOLE TRACKS CLOSER TO FLORIDA.
NICOLE'S WIND FIELD HAS EXPENDED SOME SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. SO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
READ MORE IN DETAIL BELOW NHC DISCUSSION.
833
WTNT42 KNHC 071458
TCDAT2
Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022
The structure of Nicole this morning remains distinctly subtropical,
as the low-level circulation remains tangled up with an elongated
upper-level low. The wind-field also remains quite broad, with data
from the NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunters this morning showing the highest
winds remaining displaced well away from the center. The initial
intensity is being held at 40 kt for this advisory which is
supported by the subtropical classification of ST2.5/35-40 kt from
TAFB, the earlier scatterometer data, and recent SFMR winds from the
NOAA-P3 aircraft in the 40-kt range.
Nicole might be starting to take a northwestward turn this morning,
with the estimated motion at 320/8 kt. A continued northwestward
motion is expected through the day, though there might be some
wobbles more north or west here and there as the low-level
circulation continues to interact with the decaying upper-level low.
After 24 hours, an anomalously strong mid-level ridge is expected to
amplify over the southeastern U.S. which is expected to steer Nicole
and result in the system turning westward or even west-southwestward
on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This ridging will then re-position
itself to the northeast of Nicole by Thursday and Friday which is
expected to allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude after it
moves across the Florida Peninsula, though how quickly this occurs
is a source of track uncertainty in this time frame. Finally a broad
mid-latitude trough is forecast to eject out of the Rockies into the
Great Lakes region, further eroding the ridge and allowing Nicole to
recurve by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is
fairly tightly clustered for the first 60 hours of the forecast,
though it has taken a noticeable shift southward this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast was shifted a bit southward due to this
adjustment, but still is a bit north of the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach (HCCA).
Intensity wise, Nicole may take some time to consolidate given its
large radius of maximum winds and currently meager central
convection due to nearby dry air related to the nearby upper-level
low. This feature should gradually decay and warm 27-28 C
sea-surface temperatures should enable more organized convection to
develop while the system remains in a low vertical wind shear
environment. Nicole is forecast to transition to a tropical storm
sometime in the 24-36 hour period as this convection helps to
contract the radius of maximum wind, with further intensification
expected thereafter. The intensity guidance was a bit higher this
cycle, and the latest forecast now takes Nicole to a 65-kt hurricane
in 60 hours, which is close to the latest HCCA, HMON, and SHIPS
guidance. After Nicole moves inland, weakening is anticipated, and
the region that Nicole is forecast to emerge off in the northern
Gulf of Mexico has cooler SSTs that likely would not support robust
reintensification. Regardless on the ultimate intensity of Nicole,
the storm's large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of
the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas,
Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much
of the upcoming week.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas and southeast to east-central Florida
beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning Wednesday.
2. A dangerous storm surge is possible across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, much of the east coast of Florida and portions
of coastal Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for most of
the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia.
3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected
to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida
peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.
4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with
river rises on portions of the St. Johns River.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 69.6W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach and for Lake Okeechobee. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Georgia and east coast of Florida from Altamaha Sound southward to Hallandale Beach. The government of the Bahamas has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound, Georgia southward to Volusia/Brevard County Line and south of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound southward to Volusia Brevard County Line * Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
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