...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY THURSDAY 15, 2022...

TODAYS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MARGINAL AND A SLIGHT RISK!

FOR THE LATEST ON SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK VISIT:

STORM PREDICITION CENTER

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (SLIGHT RISK) AREAS

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Savannah, GA...

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK MARGINAL RISK AREA:

Jacksonville, FL...Fayetteville, NC...Wilmington, NC...Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY 

A 5% RISK FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Gainesville, FL...Clearwater, FL...

A 2% RISK FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Jacksonville, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Palm Bay, FL...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

A 15% RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Savannah, GA...

A 5% RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Jacksonville, FL...Fayetteville, NC...Wilmington, NC...Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...

IMPORTANT!

...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected through
   late morning as stronger storms move onshore...

Mesoscale Discussion 2045

Mesoscale Discussion 2045
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of the FL Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 591...

   Valid 151515Z - 151645Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 591 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected through
   late morning as stronger storms move onshore.

   DISCUSSION...At 1515 UTC, a thunderstorm cluster is beginning to
   move onshore near and north of the Tampa Bay vicinity. Embedded
   supercells within this cluster have occasionally shown moderate
   low/midlevel rotation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rich
   low-level moisture, MLCAPE gradually increasing into the 500-1000
   J/kg range, and 0-1 km SRH around 300 m2/s2 (per KTBW VWP) will
   support a tornado threat with any embedded supercells as this
   cluster of convection moves onshore through late morning. Strong
   low-level flow will also support the potential for locally
   strong/damaging gusts with the more intense cells and bowing line
   segments. 

   Maintenance of favorable wind profiles and gradual
   heating/moistening will support an expansion of the tornado and
   damaging-wind threat across the FL Peninsula with time, though
   widespread cloudiness and generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates
   may tend to temper the threat to some extent as convection spreads
   eastward.

   ..Dean.. 12/15/2022

URGENT BROADCAST SPC 

TORNADO WATCH 591

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 591
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   800 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central and north-central Florida
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 800 AM until
     400 PM EST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two should
   increase through the remainder of the morning and linger through at
   least midafternoon, with a band of thunderstorms moving eastward
   from the Gulf across the watch area.  Isolated supercells ahead of
   the main convective band also may pose a tornado hazard, especially
   over western areas.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   either side of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Saint
   Petersburg FL to 30 miles north northeast of Melbourne FL. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 25030.

   ...Edwards