..A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY..

 

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY PER THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER.  

THESE ARE THE LATEST CITIES AT RISK FOR STORMS TODAY:

MARGINAL RISK: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

HAIL PROBABILITY AND CITIES AT RISK:

5% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 AM EST Thu Mar 09 2023

Areas affected...north Texas, southern Oklahoma, southwestern
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090944Z - 091544Z

Summary...A persistent regime for locally training convection
could continue to produce spots of 2+ inch/hr rainfall rates,
leading to isolated/sparse flash flooding.

Discussion...A cluster of west-to-east moving thunderstorm
activity continues generally along the Red River Valley in north
Texas and southern Oklahoma.  The storms are being supported by
convergence on the nose of 30-40 kt southerly 850mb flow, which
was focused along that same general west-to-east axis for
convection.  Storms are mostly elevated, but are also benefitting
from appreciable lapse rates and shear for appreciable updraft
intensity and longevity.  PW values around 1.3-1.4 inches was also
supporting efficient rainfall.  Though the convective coverage of
stronger cells was generally sparse, one instance of convective
training resulted in a brief period of 2-3 inch/hr rainfall rates
(MRMS-estimated) near Sherman, with reports of flooded roadways
due to the rainfall.

The overall coverage of flash flooding is not expected to be high
at all this morning, although one or two more instances could
occur in this regime as storms continue to backbuild amid low- to
mid-level convergence just above the boundary layer.  Eventually
this axis of convection will shift northeastward in tandem with
low-level jet and convergence axis, with cells becoming somewhat
more common in southern/southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern
Arkansas (per observational trends and latest guidance).  FFGs in
these areas are low (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) and soils moist from
recent rainfall, all suggesting a continued, yet isolated flash
flood threat through 16Z or so.

Cook