..TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE WITH LONG TRACKING LARGE TORNADO AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS..

 

STAY ON HIGH ALERT TODAY WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO OUTBREAK LOOMING.  LARGE TORNADO POSSIBLE TODAY AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS.  PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  

PLEASE NOTE THAT BY THE TIME I POSTED THIS SOME OF THIS INFORMATION HAVE BEEN UPDATED SO MONITOR UPDATES FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER!

RTW

Mesoscale Discussion 0225
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021323Z - 021600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development, potentially
   supercells capable of producing sizable hail, appears possible as
   early as 9-11 AM.  It is not certain a severe weather watch will be
   needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture return is ongoing on southerly
   low-level flow across much of the southern Great Plains.  This
   includes areas as far north as southeastern Oklahoma, above a
   shallow near-surface stable layer, to the cool side of a surface
   frontal zone.  Based on forecast soundings (and the 12Z sounding
   from Norman), this may be contributing to CAPE on the order of
   1000-2000 J/kg, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with
   a plume of elevated mixed-layer air.

   Despite inhibition associated with the elevated mixed layer,
   deepening convective development is already evident in satellite
   imagery near and west through north of the McAlester vicinity. 
   Various model guidance, including the Rapid Refresh and High
   Resolution Ensemble output, suggest that forcing for ascent, likely
   driven by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection beneath difluent
   upper flow, may support the initiation of increasing thunderstorm
   development as early as 15-17Z.

   With forecast hodographs within the elevated potential inflow layer
   forecast to enlarge somewhat, and become clockwise curved, in the
   presence of strong cloud-bearing layer shear, the environment
   appears conducive to supercells capable of producing large hail.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/02/2023

DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MODERATE, ENHANCED, SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE RISK AREAS SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION!

MODERATE RISK: Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...

ENHANCED RISK: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

SLIGHT RISK: Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Pasadena, TX...Abilene, TX...Beaumont, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: San Antonio, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Huntsville, AL...Springfield, MO...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE RISK AREAS FOR TORNADO EF-2 OR HIGHER, SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS AREAS IN THE BLACK HATCHED LINES ON MAP!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...

10% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Fort Smith, AR...College Station, TX...The Woodlands, TX...

2% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Huntsville, AL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE RISK AREAS FOR DAMAGING WINDS, SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS AREAS IN THE BLACK HATCHED LINES ON MAP!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

45% PROBABILITY: Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...Round Rock, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Huntsville, AL...Springfield, MO...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE RISK AREAS FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL, SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS AREAS IN THE BLACK HATCHED LINES ON MAP!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Waco, TX...Abilene, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Huntsville, AL...