..MODELS STILL HINTING OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF..

MODELS STILL HINTING OF A PATTERN CHANGE AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE GULF STATES AND FLORIDA.  

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A LOW IN THE GULF AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW LOW TRACKING OVER FLORIDA.  I AM NOT CONCERNED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW BUT I AM WATCHING.

AS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FOR DAY 1 AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR ALABAMA, GEORGIA, NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINA'S.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL SEE ENHANCED RAIN AND STORM CHANCE DURING THE COMING DAYS AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  IT WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT, BUT THE CHANCES FOR GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS.

SO FAR MODELS ARE NOT HINTING A STRONG LOW DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

RTW

EURO MODEL

COLOR LEGEND ON THE RIGHT SHOW RAIN IN INCHES

GFS MODEL

THIS MODEL HINTS AT STRONG STORMS MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

48 HOUR DAY 4-5 RAINFALL PROBABILITIES PLENTY OF RAIN OVER THE GULF AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER THIS THAT REGION.

48 HOUR DAY 6-7 

YOU CAN SEE FLORIDA GETTING THERE FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING WEEK.

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 4 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

FRONT ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA WHERE HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR.

NATIONAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

ENSEMBLE MODELS