..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 16, 2023..

 

GOOD MORNING WE HAVE A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NOT SHOWING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  

ELSEWHERE THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS I BEEN WATCHING ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.  THIS LOW WAS PRODCUING STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS YESTERDAY. 

THE CIRCULATION FROM THE LOW WAS PARTIALLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ENHANCING RAIN AND STORMS OVER INTERIOR MIAMI DADE.  THIS LOW SEEMS TO BE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SO THE INFLUENCE LOW HAD OVER US HAS LESSEN.

THREE MODELS ARE  SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NORTH THAT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW.

ENSEMBLE MODEL SHOWS SOME LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER,  AS WE WELL KNOW FORECAST ARE CONSTANTLY CHANGING RUN TO RUN.  SO WE WILL MONITOR AND BE STORMS READY!  

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SURFACE MAP

GFS ENSEMBLE AS ALWAYS OVER DOING IT.

EURO ENSEMBLE SHOWS POSSIBLE BAHAMA LOW TRACKING NORTH.

THOSE ROUND BLOBS YOU SEE IN ORNAGE OR RED COLORS REPRESENTS LOW PRESSURE AND THE BLUE REPRESENT HIGH PRESSURE.

NORTH ATLANTIC SATELLITE (CLOUD TEMP/LIGHTNING)

MID TO UPPER LOW STILL FIRING UP STORMS IN A SMALL AREA EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT, AS POSSIBLE MORE WAVES DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO TRACK ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC.