..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK STARTS TODAY MAY 15, 2023 THROUGH NOV 30, 2023..

 

GOOD MORNING TODAY IS THE OFFICIAL START OF THE 2023 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON AND ALSO THE START TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH START MAY 15 THROUGH NOV 30.  

I BEGIN TRACKING THE TROPICS TODAY AS WELL AND WILL BE PUBLISHING DAILY UPDATES HERE.  ANY SUSPICIOUS AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE POSTED HERE DAILY.

RTW.

• THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, I AM MONITORING,  A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF.  THE GFS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM IN THE NEAR FUTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM THIS SURFACE TROUGH, BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS IS TO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SURFACE MAP

• NO TROPICAL WAVES INSITE AT THIS TIME.

EURO ENSEMBLE MODEL NOT SHOWING MUCH LO DEVELOPMENT IN THIS RUN.

GFS SHOWS A BIT MORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.

THE DARKER ORANGE COLORS ARE POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURES IN THESE ENSEMBLE MODELS.  YELLOW IS WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

AFRICAN SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING, POSSIBLE WAVES ABOUT TO MOVE OF THE COAST.  TO EARLY FOR ATLANTIC DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH WATERS ARE NICE AN WARM.  AS THESE WAVES TRACK INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EAST PACIFIC AT TIME THEY CAN BECOME  A PROBLEM.  

AREAS TO MONITOR IN MAY AND JUNE ARE THE THE BAHAMAS, OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTHWARD, THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

NORTH ATLANTIC SATELLITE CLOUD TEMPS AND LIGHTNING

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING.