..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 22, 2023.. ..STILL MONITORING AREAS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS..

 

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S., NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS.

DURING THE PROCESS OF THIS SO CALLED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IF AT ALL, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM GEORGIA SOUTHWARD OVER FLORIDA. GEORGIA WILL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS  1.50" TO 2.00" OFF SHORE WHERE THE LOW WOULD BE LOCATED PER THE PRESENT FORECAST.  

REMEMBER TO CHECK BACK BECUASE THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE IN THE COMING FORECAST RUNS.  HERE IS A LINK TO THE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER!

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221136
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located a couple of hundred miles northeast of the central 
Bahamas remain poorly organized. Strong upper-level winds and dry 
air are expected to prevent development while the system moves 
generally north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern 
Atlantic during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AND SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in Panama, Colombia and Venezuela: 
A pronounced deep layered upper level trough extends from the W
Atlantic along about 70W southward across Hispaniola to the coast
of northern Colombia. The upper level trough continues to interact
with the monsoon trough to trigger widespread deep convection
across Panama, northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela, and
adjacent Caribbean waters. This trend will continue through at
least Monday. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated
strong convection extends from the waters of the far Tropical
eastern Pacific eastward to Venezuela early this morning. 

Please, refer to the latest forecasts from your local 
meteorological agencies for more information.

Volcanic Ash from Popocatepetl: The Popocatepetl Volcano
continues in a state of unrest. Intermittent large eruptions 
continue from the volcano this morning, and are reaching as high 
as 30000 ft into the atmosphere. Upper level westerly winds are
transporting the ash across the adjacent Gulf of Mexico, from 22N
southward and as far west as 92W. It is possible that some of the
ash may be reaching the surface, which may reduce the 
visibilities for marine operations. Mariners should exercise 
caution. Mariners who encounters volcanic ash or floating 
volcanic debris are encouraged to report this observation to the 
National Hurricane Center, by calling 001-305-229-4424.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 37.5W, from 12N southward, 
moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Associated scattered moderate 
convection is confined along the ITCZ from 05.5N to 07.5N between 
36W and 40W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 18W, from 12N southward, 
moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 03N to 05N between 12W and 19W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland across Africa. The ITCZ extends from
06.5N21W to 05.5N36W, then resumes from 05N40W to coastal Brazil
near 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 19W and 35W, and between 
39W and 56W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about volcanic ash in the southwestern corner of the area. Highest
concentrations of ash are near the Mexican coast W of 94W, where
visibilities may be as low as 3 nm.

A weak stationary front extends from 1012 mb low pressure across 
the Florida Panhandle to just offshore of Corpus Christi, Texas. 
Gentle N to NE winds prevail north of this boundary. To the south,
light to gentle NE winds generally dominate the remaining waters,
except moderate N to NE winds along the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. A surface trough lingers along the W coast of the
Florida Peninsula. Seas are generally 2 ft or less across the
basin expect to 3 ft along the W coast of the Yucatan. Widely
scattered moderate connection is along the stalled front to the E
of 90W. 

The weak front will dissipate over the far northern Gulf of 
Mexico through Tue, but overall weak high pressure will dominate. 
This pattern will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas.
A modest cold front will move S through the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico Wed, bringing gentle to moderate N to NE winds to the 
basin. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has had several 
large eruptions in the past day and eruptions continue this 
morning. Ash has moved E-NE away from the volcano and over 
portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico, S of 22N and W of 91W. 
Visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall 
through this afternoon. Mariners should exercise caution. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about heavy rainfall in parts of Colombia, Panama, and
Venezuela, during the next few days.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from an energetic Atlantic trough 
covers the area from 78W eastward. Comparatively drier air in 
subsidence is on the western side of the cyclonic wind flow, from 
13N northward between 70W and NE Nicaragua/ E Honduras. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection persists N of 16N to the
coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic E of 70W, and
across much of the southeast Caribbean. The surface trough to the
N of Hispaniola is disrupting the typical pressure gradient across
the basin, and yielding moderate SE winds E of 68W and light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft across eastern portions
and offshore of Colombia, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.

Elongated low pressure prevails across the Atlantic along 72W, 
with a 1010 mb surface low near 25N72W, and is supported by a deep
layered upper trough. This pattern will generally persist through
Thu as the low pressure gradually moves N then NE and exits the 
region. Expect areas of showers and thunderstorms over the waters 
E of 68W in the eastern Caribbean and S of 12N in the SW Caribbean
through Tue night. Below normal winds and seas will persist
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp and deep layered upper trough is across the western
Atlantic along about 70W, and is digging southward across 
Hispaniola and the central Caribbean. This feature has produced a
1010 mb low pressure center near 25N72W, with elongated troughing
extending from Hispaniola through the trough to near 29N72W. 
Fresh SE surface winds to the east of the surface trough to 60W 
are interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered 
moderate to strong convection from 20N to 28N between 63W and 71W.
Fresh to strong SE to E winds are assumed to be occurring across 
the E and NE semicircles of the low center, and extends to 60W, 
where seas are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, a 1031 mb Azores high extends
SW to near 30N70W and is producing moderate to locally fresh 
winds across the remainder of the Atlantic S of 30N between 30W 
and 60W, where seas are 6-9 ft. To the east of 30W, fresh to 
locally strong NE winds are from 14N to 18N, and fresh elsewhere, 
with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic low pressure near 25N72W 
will move slowly N through Tue, then interact with a cold front 
approaching from the NW, and exit the region to the NE Tue night 
through Wed. Strong SE to S winds and rough seas will prevail east
of the low to 65W, accompanied by numerous showers and 
thunderstorms. Another cold front and possible low pressure may 
move offshore NE Florida and impact the far NW waters Thu through 
Fri. 

$$
Stripling

ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS

GFS SHOWS ALL POSSIBLE LOW PREESURE DEVELOPMENT 

POINTS NEAR FLORIDA AND SYSTEM NEAR THE BAHAMAS.

EURO, GFS, CANADIAN, NAVGEM (NAVY), AND THE ICON (GERMAN) MODEL!

THE EURO SHOWS A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER FLORIDA ENHANCING 
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE STATE THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF 
SHORE GEORGIA, CAROLINAS AND SKIRTING THE COAST.

GFS (AMERICAN) MODEL


CANADIAN MODEL


NAVGEM (NAVY) MODEL


ICON (GERMAN) MODEL



SURFACE FRONTS AND SEA-LEVEL PRESSURES (WPC)



QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
1 THROUGH 7 DAYS RAINFALL 


DAYS 1-2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK


SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF STORMS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.  
AS THIS MOVES NORTH THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS.
ALSO AREAS FROM VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD ACORSS THE LESSER ANTILLES 
COULD SEE FLOODING AS WELL.

UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IN THE AREA AT THIS TIME.