..INVEST 92L BETTER ORGANIZED COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANYTIME..

 

STORM INVESTIGATION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANYTIME.  THIS IS RARE TO SEE THE ATLANTIC IN JUNE SPAWNING TROPICAL CYCLONES. 

MODELS A SPLIT BUT I AM SEEING LESS TURING TO THE NORTH WHICH USUALLY OCCURS WHEN THE STORM IS STRONGER, AND MORE TRENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN WHICH INDICATES A WEAK STORM SYSTEM.

STILL TO FAR OUT AT SEE SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.  THOSE WHO LIVE THE LESSER ANTILLES WATCH CLOSELY AND BE READY JUST IN CASE IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181726
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the 
next day or so.  This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further 
development through the middle part of the week.  Additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

EURO ENSEMBLE MODEL

GEFS ENSEMBLE