..INVEST 92L IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A NEW INVEST FOLLOWS BEHIND 92L..

 

INVEST 92L CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZED AS A NEW STORM INVEST IS INTRODUCED BEHIND 92L.  THIS WAVE HAS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AND 7 DAYS. 

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT 92L WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS RARE JUNE ATLANTIC ACTIVITY.

RTW

 

 HWRF MODEL SHOW STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE 

TRACKING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182315
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the 
next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 
mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further development 
through the middle part of the week. Additional information on this 
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another area of showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles south 
of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave that 
recently emerged off the coast of Africa. While this activity is 
currently disorganized, some slow development of this system is 
possible through the middle to latter part of this week as the 
system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

DRY AIR AHEAD OF 92L DOESN'T SEEM TO BE AFFECTING THIS LOWS DEVELOPMENT. 

92L HAS PLENTY OFF MOISTURE SURROUNDING IT AND THE INVEST BEHIND 92L.