A persistent upper level trough across eastern Cuba and the Bahamas seems to be lessening over eastern Cuba. latest satellite shows that most of the heavy storms are north-northeast of the central Bahamas.
there ate a total of 4 waves, 2 in the Atlantic, 1 over south America and one over central America entering the east pacific. At this time none of these are showing sign of organization but the one over central America is is firing up lightning and storms over Nicaragua and and Honduras.
I am monitoring the northwest Caribbean as the persistent GFS model continues to show development. I know this model tends to develop these bogus storms during the beginning of the season but i will monitor for now.
None of the other models are hinting at development, so more than likely this may be another GFS blooper. However, in the past season we have seen other models jump on board the GFS model train and begin to show development. So for now its nothing to be concerned about just be storm ready and monitor the tropics daily.
El Niño continues to strengthen, but remember to be storm ready as all it takes its one storm.
RTW
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