Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ..TROPICAL OUTLOOK AND DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK..

Showers and storms, some strong, off the African coast, are mainly monsoon trough showers and storms in this area.

A westward tracking tropical wave between 35 degrees west latitude has scattered showers and storms along the waves southern axis. This activity is south of the 5 degree north longitude line.

Another wave which is located between 60 west latitude and 50 west latitude has some scattered showers and storms ahead of the southern waves axis south of the 5 north longitude line. This showers and storms are nearing the northeast coast of Venezuela and the lower windward islands.

Another wave along 76–75 west has some showers along the southern waves axis. A 1009 mb low pressure system is east of the waves' northern axis. to the south is the monsoon storm track that tends to enhance showers and storms in this region.

These waves are not showing any signs of organization at this time.

Showers and storms over the Florida straits, Western Cuba, and the Bahamas are due to a monsoon trough in this region and a tropical wave to the south. All this is enhancing rain and storms over southern Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas. Some storms could be strong at times. Water spouts can't be ruled out off shore Gulf and Atlantic waters today.

Elsewhere in the tropics, all remains quiet.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN

024 
AXNT20 KNHC 121040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 11N southward, 
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen from 04N to 09N between 34W and 37W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 13N southward
into Suriname, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 06N to 12N between 55W and
Trinidad/Tobago.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from 13N southward into 
Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this wave at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal
coast near 16N17W and extends southwestward to 07N27NW. The ITCZ
continues from 07N27W to 06N35W, then W of a tropical wave near
06N37W to 06N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is flaring up along the African coast from Guinea-Bissau southward
to Liberia, from 04N to 13N and E of 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 34W and
62W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is 
producing isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends into the south-central Gulf with no
significant convection at this time. Otherwise, a broad but 
modest 1011 mb high at the north- central Gulf continues to 
dominate the region. Gentle southerly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft 
exist at the north- central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate 
with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for 
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over 
Texas by midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and 
expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds
will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue 
night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will 
produce hazy skies across the SW Gulf through early this morning. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface ridge extends westward from a 1021 mb high at the
central Atlantic to the northwestern basin. Convergent
southeasterly winds south of the ridge axis are triggering 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over western Cuba and
nearby Caribbean waters. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades and
seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin north of
Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trades and 4 to 6 
ft seas are noted across the north-central and eastern basin, and
at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 
seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between high pressure over 
the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this week. 
This will result in fresh to strong trade winds significantly 
expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean through 
the week. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of 
Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds continue to couple with modest
divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the central Bahamas northeastward to near
30N73W. A stationary front south of Bermuda is producing isolated 
showers north of 28N between 60W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in 
the Atlantic Basin. 

Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are present
west of 70W from the Bahamas northward to beyond 31N. Otherwise, 
a broad Atlantic Ridge related to a 1021 mb high near 26N56W is 
supporting light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 23N 
between the Africa coast and Florida-Georgia coast. To the south,
moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are 
present from 13N to 23N between the central Africa coast and 30W, 
and also from 07N to 23N between 30W and the southern Bahamas. 
Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft 
seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic 
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic Ridge will maintain 
gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic today. As a 
cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to SW moderate to 
fresh winds will develop tonight through Fri across the waters N 
of 27N. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic,
including the Bahamas, is expected to diminish significantly by 
tonight. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola this 
afternoon and evening as well as Tue afternoon and evening. 

$$ 
AReinhart