THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW. EURO ENSEMBLE MODEL SHOWS POSSIBLE TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN JUNE COMING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
FOR NOW ITS JUST MONITOR AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ALL YOUR SUPPLIES IN ORDER AND YOU HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION IN CASE A STORM TRACKS YOUR WAY.
RTW
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Bucci
862 AXNT20 KNHC 131013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jun 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17W from the Guinea- Bissau coast southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 12W-19W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 12N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 08N between 40W and 43W. A Caribbean tropical wave is mostly inland along 65W and S of 13N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 13N southward through Panama into the East Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N18W to 07N26W. The ITCZ continues westward from 07N26W to 06N39W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N43W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N-09N between 31W-40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convergent SE winds east of a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche are triggering scattered showers near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted at the northwestern and southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the western Gulf today. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. As a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by mid-week, winds will gradually increase to fresh and expand to the central Gulf through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to fresh in the eastern Gulf by tonight into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge to the north near 26N is supporting a trade- wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are triggering isolated thunderstorms near western Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft exist at the south-central basin just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-central basin and Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E to SE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in fresh to strong trade winds expanding across the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic ridge reaches westward from a 1021 mb high near 26N58W across the western Atlantic to southern Florida. A weak cold front stretches southwestward from the Azores across 31N34W to 26N50W, then continues northwestward as a stationary front to 31N60W. Refer to the Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are present north of 27N between 70W and the Georgia-northeast Florida coast. Similar conditions with E to SE winds are also found farther southeast from 19N to 24N between 50W and the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas exist north of 20N between the Africa coast and Bahamas. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate from 13N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W. Farther west, gentle to moderate with fresh NE to E trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from 05N to 19N/20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail from the central Atlantic westward to the central Bahamas through today. The associated gradient will maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds across the western Atlantic today. A cold front will become stationary over the southeastern U.S. through mid-week. Ahead of it, SW moderate to fresh winds will develop beginning on Thu across the waters N of 27N. Another cold front will move into the southeastern U.S. late Sat night preceded by moderate to fresh SW winds. Winds will pulse to fresh north of Hispaniola this afternoon and evening. $$ ERA
ENSEMBLE MODELS
DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
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