..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 14, 2023..

 

I am beginning to see signals from the EURO models hinting that one of the waves tracking across the Atlantic could briefly get stronger as it tracks north of the Leeward Islands.  After the so called weather system moves away from the northern Leeward Island chain, It will more than likely run into hostile upper level winds weakening this system.  However, I caution you, this is a only a forecast and it is subject to change so take this as a grain of salt.

The GFS continues to show a spin off from the central American GYRE one that will track west and possibly produce gusty winds and heavy rains for Nicaragua and Honduras and maybe the Southern Yucatan.  The next spin off will also come from the southern Caribbean and track north and east across western Cuba and Florida as a weak depression or tropical storm.  Once again I caution you this is only a forecast and it is always subject to change.  

RTW

Satellite Animation with an overlay of the EURO model tracks.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
NNNN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141012
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 23W from 
12N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 38W from 
11N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
are noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 56W from 
13N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 07N to 11N between 52W and 59W. 

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 72W from 13N 
southward into northwestern Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are occurring over western Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 06N27W. The 
ITCZ continues westward from 06N27W to 03N37W, then from 04N40W 
to 04N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered showers are noted within 200 nm N of
the ITCZ boundaries.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering 
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean 
waters near Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge stretching westward from central Florida to
the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Moderate 
with fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail over the 
western and south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds 
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf waters and low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico will 
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the 
western Gulf through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also
expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at 
night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies 
over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high centered near
27N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime across the entire
basin, except monsoonal winds near Panama. Fresh to strong ENE to
E winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central 
basin just north of Colombia, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas persist between Cuba and
Jamaica, and south of the Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal 
winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft in easterly swell are noted near Costa
Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4
to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the central
Caribbean through the week. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through the 
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving
across the basin.

An Atlantic ridge extends westward from a 1022 mb high centered near
27N57W to southern Florida. To the east, a cold front extends 
southwestward from the eastern Azores across 31N28W to 25N38W. A
surface trough continues from that point to 24N46W. No significant
convection is related to the front/trough at this time.

Moderate to fresh ESE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted
north of 27N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast, and from 
19N to 26N between 52W and the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, light
to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas exist north of 19N between 
21W and the Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh 
with strong NNE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted north of 
27N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. Farther south, 
gentle to moderate with fresh N to NE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas 
are noted from 14N to 26N between the central Africa coast and 
21W. Across the tropical Atlantic north of 08N, gentle to moderate
NNE to NE trades are between 21W and 40W and moderate to fresh 
ENE to ESE trades are between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in
these areas are from 3 to 5 ft and 5 to 7 ft respectively. Light 
to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in 
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, little change of the weather pattern 
is expected this week. A cold front is forecast to clip the NW 
waters on Thu. As a result, expect fresh to strong S to SW winds 
and seas to 8 ft over the N waters, mainly N of 29N and W of 70W.

$$
ERA

A DANGEROUS DAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST TODAY MODERATE RISK FOR SEVRE STORMS.  CHECK STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR TORNADO, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL PROBABILITIES WHICH SOME HAVE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT!

MODERATE RISK: Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...Tuscaloosa, AL...Albany, GA...

ENHANCED RISK: Birmingham, AL...Shreveport, LA...Mobile, AL...Savannah, GA...Macon, GA...

SLIGHT RISK: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Atlanta, GA...Arlington, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: New York, NY...Jacksonville, FL...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...