..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AND DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK JUNE 15, 2023..

 

The EURO ensemble model continues to show tropical cyclone development from a wave about to emerge off the African coast.  Sea surface temps are nice a warm for tropical cyclone formation.  The National Hurricane Center now has a storm investigation along the African coast and into the central Atlantic for the same strong tropical wave that could possibly develop.

The GFS ensemble model also hints that something could develop over the Atlantic into next week.  GFS also shows possible development in the Caribbean as a low tracks north.  That is still questionable as other models do not suggest at any development to our south at this time.

I continue to monitor these areas for development. 

RTW 

Euro ensemble shows low passing north of the 

Leeward Islands and another moving into the Caribbean.

Canadian ensemble model hints at low pressure passing over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, one tracking into the Caribbean and the other low tracking north out of the southern Caribbean similar to the GFS model.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
later today and early Friday.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it 
moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph 
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to 
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151031
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 26W from 
12N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 22W and 27W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 44W from 
11N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along 06N.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 61W from 
05N-13N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are 
present S of 09N. 

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 81W from 14N 
southward across Panama into the East Pacific, moving west at 
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 14N between
79W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 06N29W. The ITCZ 
continues westward from 06N29W to 05N42W, then resumes from 
06N45W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 09N between 44W and 58W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous showers and thunderstorms over northern Colombia, Panama,
and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the NE Gulf waters mainly N of 27N and E of 84W. Elsewhere, 
a broad surface ridge stretching westward from central Florida to 
the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Fresh to 
strong SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the south- 
central Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate southerly 
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the southeastern Gulf, including
the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at
3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf waters and low pressure over NE Mexico will continue to 
support moderate to fresh SE winds across the W Gulf through Thu. 
Fresh to strong SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula will 
weaken by Thu morning, then fresh winds will pulse each night 
through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will 
continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for the next few
days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves 
affecting the basin.

An upper-level trough over the northwestern portion of the basin 
continues to induce scattered showers over eastern Cuba and 
western Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean waters. 

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high pressure 
centered near 27N58W continues to support a trade-wind regime 
across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and Costa
Rica. Latest scatterometer and altimeter data reveal strong to 
near-gale easterly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft at the south- 
central basin, just north of Colombia. Fresh to strong ESE winds 
and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to 
moderate ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail south of Cuba 
and the Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft 
seas in trade-wind swell are found offshore Panama and Costa Rica.
Fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in 
the basin.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades 
across most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force 
winds are expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela 
and near the coast of Colombia through Fri night, then fresh to 
strong winds will pulse each night through the weekend. Fresh to 
strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at 
night, through Sun night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves 
affecting the basin.

An outflow boundary is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the western Atlantic mainly W of 75W. An upper-level trough 
over the western Atlantic continues to spark scattered showers 
from the southeast Bahamas northward between 63W-72W. A 1022 mb
high is centered near 27N58W. To the east, a surface trough
extends from 30N28W to 22N41W.

Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are 
impacting waters east of Florida N of 27N between 65W and the 
Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 6
ft seas are noted from 19N to 25N between 52W and the southeast 
Bahamas/Greater Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft in mixed northerly/southerly swells N of 19N/20N between 20W 
and the northwest/central Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, 
moderate to fresh NNE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 
20N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. Farther south, 
gentle to moderate N to NNE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are 
evident from 08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 35W. 
To the west, moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 5 to 7 ft seas 
are seen from 06N to 19N/20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. 
Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas 
in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic 
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High will continue
supporting gentle to moderate winds during the next several days 
south of 29N. North of 30N and west of 70W, fresh to strong SW 
winds are expected through Fri night.

$$
ERA

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