..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AND DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK JUNE 16, 2023..

 

ATLANTIC STORM INVESTIGATION IS NOW UP TO A 50% FORMATION CHANCE WITHIN SEVEN DAYS.  STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

• MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM CURVING OUT TO SEA HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE THIS STORM ALSO TRACKING FURTHER WEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.  

• THIS IS A FORECAST AND IS NOT SET IN STONE, AND WILL CHANGE DURING EVERY MODEL RUN. SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

• AT THIS TIME WHERE THE WAVE IS LOCATED IT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH NO WIND SHEAR.  NORTHWEST OF THERE IT IS UNFAVORABLE.

• ALSO DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHWEST OF WHERE THE WAVE IS LOCATED.  IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON BOTH OF THEE CONDITIONS IF THIS SO CALLED LOW SURVIVES AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST.

• I AM STILL MONITORING THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST ON SOME DEVELOPMENT.  SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS ALONG THE NICARAUGUA COAST VISIBLE ON SATELLITE.

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.  STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

ALSO CHECK WITH WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER FOR UPDATES ON EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES.

RTW

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. 

DRY AIR IN THE BROWN WINE COLORS.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161145
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the 
early to middle portions of next week while the system moves 
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160907
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 19W/20W from 05N 
to 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is observed from 08 to 12N, east of 22W. The latest 
Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low probability of tropical 
cyclone development over the next 48 hours, and a medium 
probability through the next seven days as the wave moves west 
across the tropical Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W from 02N to 
12N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 08N between 28W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 45W from 02N to 
11N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 03N to 07N between 42W and 50W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 63W from
eastern Venezuela at 04N to 13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated
convection is isolated and weak over water, with scattered 
thunderstorms observed over portions of Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to
08N26W. The ITCZ continues from 08N26W to 07N30W, from 06N34W to 
05N44W, and from 05N49W to the coast of French Guiana at 05N54W. 
Besides the significant convection described with the tropical
waves above, scattered moderate to strong convection is observed 
from 06N to 11N between 22W and 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula from 24N89W
to 18N93W is supporting locally fresh E-SE winds. A stationary
boundary across the SE US is triggering thunderstorms in the 
coastal waters of the far NE Gulf. Elsewhere, a broad surface 
ridge stretching across Florida to the west-central Gulf of 
Mexico dominates the weather pattern. Moderate anticyclonic flow 
is observed around the ridge, locally fresh offshore S Texas and
NE Mexico, with 3-5 ft seas. Winds are light to gentle in the SE 
Gulf and Florida Straits with 1-3 ft seas. Haze due to
agricultural fires over Mexico is resulting in some reduction to
visibilities at coastal sites from the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan 
peninsula each night through the forecast period, locally strong 
tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except 
locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. 
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies 
over the SW Gulf for at least the next day or two. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave 
affecting the basin.

A broad ridge associated with subtropical high pressure combined
with low pressure over coastal northern Colombia is supporting a
large area of fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean,
locally near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data, along with seas of 7-11 ft. Fresh to strong
E-SE winds are pulsing near the Gulf of Honduras, with seas
locally up to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are observed
elsewhere, with 5-7 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-6 ft
seas in the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate to strong
thunderstorms have developed in the past few hours E of Nicaragua
to 80W near the northern portion of a tropical wave which has
moves inland over Central America.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across
most of the central Caribbean through the next several days, 
spreading westward this weekend. Near gale-force winds are 
expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela and near 
the coast of Colombia through tonight. Fresh to strong E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sun 
night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves 
affecting the basin.

A deep layer trough that extends from near Bermuda to the Turks 
and Caicos is supporting scattered moderate convection off the E 
coast of Florida and from 25N to 31N between 75W and 80W, as well
as from 25N to 31N between 60W and 70W. Otherwise, a 1022 mb high
pressure centered near 29N55W extends a ridge WSW to the northern
Bahamas. This weather pattern supports mainly moderate to locally
fresh winds across the Atlantic waters. Seas are 6-7 ft in E-SE
swell in the Tropical N Atlantic, and mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere
across the open Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft
are expected north of 30N and west of 65W through tonight. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the
next several days, locally fresh at times offshore northern 
Hispaniola.

$$
Lewitsky
DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK