..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 29, 2023..

 

The tropics remain quiet for now!

A tropical wave west of Puerto Rico is interacting with a surface trough associated with the disturbance that NHC is monitoring.  These two system are producing strong showers and storms with lightning over Puerto Rico the British Virgin Islands and north over the Atlantic waters.  There are no signs of organization.

There two other waves over the Atlantic that are interacting with the African monsoon trough and the inter-tropical conversion zone.  There are no signs of organization at this time.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291137
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A surface trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
a few hundred miles to the south-southeast of Bermuda. Upper-level 
winds are marginally conducive for some slow development of this 
system during the next few days while it moves generally northward 
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291147
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 22W from 15N 
southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 08N to 10N within 240 nm west of the wave,
and west of the wave from 03N to 08N between 16W-21W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W/50W from 
03N to 14N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate 
to strong convection is east and west of the wave within 60 nm of 
the ITCZ.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of 
19N to inland north-central Venezuela. It is moving westward at
about 13 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present
east of the wave over and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin 
Islands. This activity is being enhanced by an upper-level trough
that is roughly along 70W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
elsewhere east of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 10N22W to near
09N30W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ and and continues to 10N41W to just east 
of a wave near 09N48W and resumes west of the same wave at 08N51W
to near 07N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-45W, and from 05N
to 09N between 37W-43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A diurnal surface trough is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1015 
mb high at the north-central, and a 1016 mb high at the east- 
central Gulf continue to dominate much of the region. Moderate to 
fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft 
dominate the southwestern Gulf, including the central and eastern 
Bay of Campeche. Moderate with locally fresh southeast to south
return flow and 3-4 ft are over the west-central and northwestern
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and lower seas of 1-3 ft are over 
the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the highs will prevail through the weekend, 
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of 90W and 
light to gentle winds east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to locally 
fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula 
each night into Sat as the diurnal trough develops each evening 
and moves offshore. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of
4-6 ft are over the south-central Caribbean area north of 
Colombia. Mainly gentle trade winds and seas of 1- ft seas are 
over the northwest part of the sea. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere across the basin.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Similar activity is over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea and elsewhere east of the tropical wave.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh tonight into Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds will develop over the south-central waters Thu 
night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere 
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed southward from a 1013 mb low that is 
over northern Florida to Lake Okeechobee and to South Florida
and the Florida Keys. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over
the waters between South Florida and the Bahamas. Another surface
trough is analyzed from near 31N63W to 24N66W. The combination of
this trough with diffluence that is present to the east of a 
large upper trough located in this general area is resulting in 
numerous showers and thunderstorms from 19N to 29N between 
57W-64W.

Mainly gentle southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident 
north of 19N between 65W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther 
east, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and 4-6 ft seas 
are found north of 19N between 50W-65W. A 1021 mb high center is 
over the far eastern Atlantic near 28N27W. The associated ridge 
dominates the area north of 20N between 20W-37W providing for 
light to gentle winds and 3- ft seas. Near the Canary Islands, 
moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas of 4-7 
ft seas are present north of 19N between the Africa coast and 25W.
Across the tropical Atlantic, moderate with locally fresh 
northeast to east-southeast trade winds along with with seas of 
5-7 ft exist from 07N to 19N between the Cabo Verde Islands and 
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds 
with seas of 5-7 ft in moderate southerly swell are over the 
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough south of Bermuda will move 
northward, with the possibility of a low pressure center 
developing along it. Winds will strengthen in the vicinity of the
trough tonight before moving north of the area Fri. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W with light to 
gentle winds elsewhere.

$$

Forecaster Aguirre