..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUN 30, 2023..

 

Not much to discuss in the tropics other than a few tropical waves and a surface trough being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.  That system has a low chance for formation within 48 hours and within 7 days.

• A tropical wave in the Central Atlantic between 30 and 35 west latitude which has some showers and storms along the southern axis of wave.  This is due to the waves interaction with the moist monsoon trough in this area which is located south of the 10 north longitude. 

• There is a tropical wave between 55 and 60 west latitude that has some thunderstorms with lightning and squally weather that will be moving over Trinidad and Tobago this evening.  There are no signs of organization. 

• The wave that was enhancing storm over Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward yesterday is now between southwest Haiti and eastern Cuba.  This wave southern axis extends south over Columbia and a 1008 mb low pressure is along the waves axis near 74 west Latitude, along the northwest Columbian coast.  There are some storms along the northern axis of the wave producing some lightning over northern coast of  Jamaica northward over eastern Cuba and off the coast.  There are no signs of organization at this time.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Atlantic Ocean:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles to the southeast of Bermuda. 
Upper-level winds do not appear conducive for this system to develop 
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone while it moves generally 
north-northeastward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301205 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 30 2023

Updated to add the East Atlantic Gale Warning Special Feature

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING
for the AGADIR Offshore Zone, from 30/1500 UTC to 01/0000 UTC.
N to NE winds will reach Force 8 near Cape Ghir, with severe
gusts. Seas are 8-11 ft, and may peak to 12 ft this evening and
early tonight. For more information, please see the latest High 
Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W and
south of 16N to 02N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of this wave to
32W and from 02N to 07N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are 
east of the wave axis to 22W and from 03N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
14N53W to 09N54W and continues south-southwestward to Suriname.
It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is ahead of the wave to near 50W and from 09N to 11N. 
In addition, scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west 
of the wave reaching to Guyana and from 04N to 06N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W from 
the southwestern tip of Haiti southward to inland Venezuela. It is 
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are occurring over Haiti. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are seen from 18N to 19N between 74W-75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania 
coast just north of Nouakchott, then continues southwestward to 
11N23W and to 08N38W, where overnight scatterometer data 
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N46W and to 10N54W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 
07N between 37W-42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
either side of the trough between 31W-37W, also within 60 nm 
south of the ITCZ between 42W-46W and within 60 nm north of the 
ITCZ between 48W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A diurnal surface trough is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Another surface 
trough is leading to similar conditions near the southwest coast 
of Florida, including the Florida Keys. Otherwise, the
anticyclonic wind flow attributed to a 1015 mb high over the 
north-central Gulf dominates much of the region. Moderate to fresh
return flow and seas of 3-5 ft are present across the western 
Gulf, and also over the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds 
with relatively low seas of 1-3 ft seas remain over the rest of 
the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail through the weekend,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and 
light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. 
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and 
west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough 
develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the 
Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh to strong Mon 
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure extends southwestward from the eastern 
Atlantic to near Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present over the waters just south of Puerto 
Rico and Hispaniola to 31N and between 56W-66W. This activity is 
being sustained by a rather broad and weak upper-level trough 
that is positioned over the western Atlantic. Similar activity
extends from the southeastern Bahamas to eastern Cuba and the
waters between Haiti and eastern Cuba.

The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure that is
over central Caribbean has resulted in fresh to strong easterly 
winds along with seas of 6-8 ft in the south-central part of the 
basin, north of Colombia. Mostly gentle northeast-east trade winds
per latest ASCAT data, are over the northwest part of the basin.
Seas there are 2-4 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east 
trade winds and seas of 4-5 ft are over the southwestern part of 
the Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft 
prevail elsewhere in the basin.

Enhanced convection is confined to the extreme southwestern
Caribbean south of 11N and west of 79W due to the presence of 
the eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and 
eastern basin will increase to between fresh and strong Mon and 
Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central 
waters will expand in coverage through Mon night. Gentle to 
moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast 
period. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic stationary front enters the area at 31N77W
and continues southwestward to near Cape Canaveral, Florida and 
continues as a decaying front over central Florida. A surface 
trough out ahead of it extends from 28N77W to South Florida. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 26N to
31N and between 72W-77W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are 
elsewhere near and over sections of the Bahamas. Father east, 
another surface trough is analyzed from near 31N62W to weak low 
pressure near 30N64W 1014 mb and continues southwestward to 
27N69W. An area of scattered moderate convection lifting north- 
northeast is seen from 28N to 31N between 57W-62W. An overnight 
ASCAT pass highlighted fresh to strong southeast-south winds north
of 30N and between 59W-61W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10
ft range.

Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds and seas of
6-8 ft are seen north of 20N between 55W-65W. Otherwise, the 
gradient associated to broad high pressure over the area 
is resulting in light to gentle east-southeast winds and seas of 
3-4 ft between 35W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Fresh north- 
northeast trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are over the waters 
north of 20N between the Africa coast and 35W. In the tropical 
Atlantic, moderate to fresh northeast to east-southeast trade 
winds along with 5-7 ft seas are seen from 09N to 20N between the 
Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to locally moderate
southerly and monsoonal winds with seas of 4-6 ft due to a 
moderately southerly swell remain over the remainder of the 
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough with weak low 
pressure along it is located SSE of Bermuda. The trough and low 
pressure will move north of 31N by early this afternoon along with
the fresh to strong southeast to south winds that are presently 
to its east and southeast. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. 

$$
Aguirre/Mahoney