..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 18, 2023..

 

1.  A large tropical wave near 20 degrees west latitude is accompanied by moderate to strong showers and storms.  These storm are being enhanced by the African monsoon in this region.  It will be monitored as it tracks west.

2.  Another tropical wave is located near 50 degrees west latitude.  This wave has some strong to moderate showers and storms along and to the west of the waves axis.  These showers and storms are are being enhanced by the moist inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ).

3.  A tropical wave moving through the Central Caribbean  is located near 74-75 degrees west latitude.  The norther axis of the wave is passing over western Haiti and is producing strong storms over northern eastern Cuban coast and extends south over Jamaica.  These storms are producing heavy rains, gusty winds in squalls and frequent lightning strikes that can be seen on satellite imagery.  An upper level low west of this waves axis seems to be helping with the development of theses storms.  If this wave maintains its convective energy (thunderstorms), it could enhance rain and storms over the Florida straits and Southern Florida in a day or so.

4.  Last of the waves is located near 87 degrees west latitude and along the eastern Yucatan coast.  This wave has no storms associated with it.

So far all remains quiet but sea surface temps are still very warm for storm development to occur if upper level conditions and African dust becomes more favorable.  Be Storm Ready!

RTW

...DON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 39.3W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Sea Surface Temps are very warm and prime fuel for tropical cyclone formation

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181004
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami 
FL 1205 UTC Tue Jul 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 36.3N 39.6W at 18/0900 UTC 
or 610 nm W of the Azores moving SE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas in excess of 12 ft extend out 120 
nm in the south semicircle, and 90 nm and 60 nm in the northwest 
and northeast quadrants of the storm. Scattered moderate 
convection extends from 35N to 40N between 28W and 42W. Don is 
forecast to turn southward later today or tonight or so followed 
by a turn westward and then northwestward on Wednesday and 
Thursday respectively. On the forecast track, Don should remain 
over the open waters of the central Atlantic.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa early this morning.
It axis is near 20W, extends from 02N to 18N, and is moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
18N between 14W and 30W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with axis near 50W,
extending from 04N to 15N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 45W and 60W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 74W,
south of 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is affecting Hispaniola and its adjacent waters. 

A tropical wave is moving across Central America into the E
Pacific waters. Its axis is near 88W and is moving west at 10-15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean W
of 80W, including the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W 
to 11N24W to 11N35W. The ITCZ continues from 11N35W to 11N47W, 
and from 10N52W to 10N61W. See the Tropical Waves Section for
details about convection. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

1018 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf of 
Mexico near 27N88W and provides anticyclonic light to gentle winds
along with slight seas across most of the northern and southeast
gulf. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche generating 
scattered showers and supporting fresh NE to E winds and seas to 6
ft in the SW basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail through the 
forecast period supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A 
trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and 
move offshore. This pattern will maintain pulsing of moderate to 
fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the 
late afternoon and evening hours. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on two tropical
waves in the Caribbean Sea. 

Fresh to strong winds are active across portions of the south- 
central Caribbean, as well as south of Haiti. Seas are 5 to 7 ft 
over the central and portions of the southwest Caribbean, and 3 to
5 ft elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate 
breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Aside from the
convection being generated by the tropical waves, numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is across the offshore waters
of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua being under the influence of
the E Pacific monsoon.  

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to 
strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat night. High 
pressure N of the area will build further westward, producing an 
increase in areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds from the 
middle to end of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the 
Gulf of Honduras are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds Sat 
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about 
Tropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Divergent flow aloft on the west side of an upper low centered NE
of Bermuda is supporting scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms N of 25N between 65W and 80W. A surface ridge 
extends from a pair of 1026 mb high pressure centers over the W
Atlantic SW across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are S of 25N between 50W and 75W with seas
to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere in the
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters along with seas to
6 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, surface high pressure will prevail across the 
forecast waters this week. This will support mainly moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds and rough 
seas N of Hispaniola at night through early Fri. 

$$
Ramos