..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 19, 2023..

 

The National Hurricane center is now monitoring that tropical wave which is locate near 25-26 degrees west latitude. This is the wave that was off the African coast I mentioned yesterday I would be monitoring.  

This wave has moderate to strong showers and storms on both sides of the waves axis.  Sea Surface Temps are warm enough to fuel this system 28c to 29c /82f to 84f.

This wave has a Low 0% formation chance within 48 hrs., and a Low 20% formation chance within 7 days.  

The Euro models shows this low stalling out temporarily over the Central Atlantic as steering currents weaken, then as high pressure builds over it and it begins a westward track west toward the Caribbean.  It will be monitored as this system will have to contend with dry Sahara air and dust and at times wind shear.  I will continue to monitor closely.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Cloudiness and showers over the eastern tropical Atlantic centered 
a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated 
with a tropical wave.  While dry air should prevent significant 
organization during the next few days, environmental conditions 
could become more conducive for some development by this weekend 
while the wave moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic 
at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

A tropical wave near 58-60 degrees west latitude near the windward Islands and partially over South America, has some isolated moderate showers and storms along and west of the waves axis.  

A tropical wave over the northwest Caribbean located near 80-82 west Latitude is still interacting with an upper low over the Yucatan Peninsula, west of the waves axis is enhancing thunderstorm activity offshore the southeast coast of Florida and the Florida straits.  Some of these showers have come on shore the Florida east coast this morning.  The heaviest showers and storms are over Nassau Bahamas and are producing lightning and strong gusty winds in squalls with heavy showers.    If these storms hold together they could make their way on shore Florida southeast coast this evening.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 34.0N 39.3W at 19/0900 UTC or
640 nm WSW of the Azores, and drifting south at 3 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 
35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and within 60 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant. Don is forecast to turn 
southwestward soon, turn westward tonight or on Thu, and then 
northwestward on Fri with an increase in forward speed. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W from 
04N to 19N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave 
from 09N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm 
east of the wave from 07N to 10N.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 59W south of 
17N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are seen from 08N to 14N between 55W and 61W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 81W S of 21N
to central Panama. It is moving westward around 15 kt. It is 
Interacting with an upper-level low to the west near 18N84W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 16N and west 
of the wave, including the Yucatan Channel area and the Gulf of 
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and 
turns southwestward through 10N25W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends 
from 10N38W to 10N46W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is within 120 nm S of the trough between 
27W-31W. Scattered moderate is within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between
40W-48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is coupling with the northern tip of a tropical
wave to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the Bay of
Campeche. An upper-level trough is producing isolated
thunderstorms at the central and southeastern Gulf. Otherwise, a
broad surface ridge extending westward from central Florida to
just north of Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate the region.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are noted at the
north-central and northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas existed at the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the weekend. This
should support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the 
Bay of Campeche where winds will be moderate to fresh, enhanced 
by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the 
night hours. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms at
the eastern basin. Refer to the Tropical Wave sections for
additional weather in the basin. Tight gradient between the
Bermuda High to the north and lower pressure at northwestern 
Colombia is causing fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 
ft at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Mainly fresh E 
winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-central basin. 
Gentle E to ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the 
northwest basin and just north of Panama and Costa Rica. Moderate 
with locally fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere 
in the Caribbean Sea, including the waters near Cayman Islands.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will maintain fresh
to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong 
to near-gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia 
and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Wed through Thu during the late 
afternoon and early evening hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds
will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds associated with the Bermuda High axis 
are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the central 
Bahamas. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A broad surface ridge related to both the Bermuda and Azores
Highs are promoting light to gentle with locally moderate ENE to
SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N between 20W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NNE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen
north of 19N between the Africa coast and 20W. Across the tropical
Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
are seen from 12N to 19N between 31W and 55W. Near and just east 
of the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft
seas are dominating from 11N to 19N between 55W and the Lesser 
Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NE winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft existed from 11N to 19N between 20W and 
31W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal west winds with 4 to
6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High pressure will weaken
and shift east-southeastward beginning Thu. This will support 
mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh 
to strong winds and generally moderate seas just north of 
Hispaniola at night through Thu night. 

$$
Chan/Aguirre

Upper Level conditions in the Caribbean and and west of the Africa!