I am still monitoring models and the tropical wave storm investigation that the national hurricane center is watching with a low 0% formation chance within 48 hours and a low 20% formation chance within 7 days.
Models show this system becoming nearly stationary as it approaches 40 degrees west latitude due to weak steering currents as high pressure ridge weakens in this area. However, the high rebuilds and helps to steer this weak system to the west and into the Caribbean.
The Euro ensemble shows some development but as it nears the northwest Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico. However this is toward the end of the forecast run, and long range forecast are not reliable to make this assumption at this time.
Other models show a short lived system as it weakens quickly. Environmental conditions are not really favorable for any system to develop at this time.
A combination of some Sahara dry air and dust, along with upper level winds in the Atlantic are making it difficult for tropical cyclone formation. EL Nino is doing its job so far!
NHC seems to think that conditions could become a bit more favorable as it tracks further west. I will continue to monitor closely!
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Right side of this graphic show a >40% chance for development in the Atlantic in the near future but this system weakens to a >20% there after. Click on image to make it larger.
Euro Model Ensemble
American Model Ensemble
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic. 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is currently interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The combination of these features is producing an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. While dry air to the north may prevent significant organization during the next couple of days, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some development this weekend as the system moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Brown
This wave is lacking showers and storms and does not pose heavy rains or storm threat for Dominican republic or South America at this time.
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The wave that was producing heavy rains and storms over Nassau Bahamas yesterday is along the eastern Yucatan peninsula and extends over Central America. Strong showers and storms are north off the Southwest coast of Florida, east of the waves axis over the western Caribbean, north of the Yucatan and near or south of Belize. There are no signs of organization.
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 201057 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jul 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Don is centered near 34.1N 41.6W at 20/0900 UTC. or about 740 nm WSW of the Azores. It is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate convection is present within 150 nm of the center of Don, and within 30 nm southwest of Don. Don is forecast to continue its current motion, with an increase in forward speeds during the next couple of days. Don is later expected to turn northward over the weekend. Slight strengthening is expected during the next day or so, followed by little change in strength through Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with its axis stretching from near 19N27W to 05N31W. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 07N to 11N. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 69W south of 18N to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave based on the latest analysis. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88W south of 20N to inland western Honduras and continues well into the eastern Pacific, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 18N to 22N between 81W and the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near Nouakchott, Mauritania, and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to 07N47W. Aside from convection associated to the far eastern Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 06N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 22W-27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The typical diurnal Yucatan Peninsula surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the central Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough along the Florida west coast is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over southwestern Florida and nearby waters. A broad surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1021 mb high over the northeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-2 ft are present across the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 2-4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week. This should support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except fresh to strong winds over the Bay of Campeche which will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent ESE trade winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage. Refer to the Tropical Waves section at the beginning for additional weather in the basin. Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure at northwestern Colombia is sustaining strong with locally near- gale ENE winds and seas of 8-12 ft at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Fresh to strong E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present for the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3-4 ft exist just north of Panama and near western Cuba. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4- 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist across the central basin through Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds with very rough seas are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest information on Tropical Storm Don. Convergent fresh east-southeast winds are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south and southeast of Bermuda, north of 26N between 60W-67W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda High is supporting light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 24N between 67W and the Georgia-Florida coast, and north of 20N between 50W and 67W. Over the central and eastern Atlantic, surface high pressure ridging related to a 1026 mb Azores High is maintaining light to gentle winds and 3-6 ft seas north of 20N between 27W-50W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas of 5-7 ft dominate north of 22N between the Africa coast and 67W. Across the tropical Atlantic, light to gentle ENE trades with 4-6 ft seas are seen from 07N to 20N between 48W and the Lesser Antilles, and from 12N to 20N between 27W-48W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NE to N winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found from 14N-20N between 20W-27W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly and monsoonal westerly winds and 4-6 ft in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will weaken and shift east-southeastward beginning Thu as a cold front moves across the southeastern United States and stalls through the weekend. This will support mainly moderate to locally fresh winds, except for fresh to strong easterly winds and generally moderate seas just north of Hispaniola through Thu night. $$ Aguirre
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