..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 28, 2023..

 

Just a heads up I will be away with the family from July 28-Aug 4.  I will be doing brief updates from my cell phone as weather conditions warrant.  I will resume full tropical updates on Aug 4.

Best regards

Sorry for the inconvenience!

RTW

A strong tropical wave in the central Atlantic has a low 20% formation chance within 48 hours and a Med 60% formation chance within 7 days.  Development of this system would be more likely northeast of the Leeward Islands.  Most of the models recurve this storm system northwest then northeast and out over the north Atlantic Ocean.

Another Wave located over the Lesser Antilles has some showers and storms but no formation.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave 
located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser 
Antilles has increased since yesterday.  Environmental conditions 
are expected to be favorable for additional gradual development of 
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression 
could form early next week while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far western Atlantic 
near the coasts of Georgia and northeastern Florida are associated 
with a weak area of low pressure that has formed just east of 
Jacksonville.  This system is moving north-northwestward and is 
forecast to move inland over northeastern Florida and eastern 
Georgia today, and additional development is not expected.  
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over 
northeastern Florida, eastern Georgia, and portions of eastern South 
Carolina during the next day or so. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.  

3. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave and 
broad area of low pressure.  This system is forecast to move 
westward over Central America later today or tonight, and 
significant development is not anticipated.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
Nicaragua and Honduras during the next day or so. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.  

Forecaster Brown

A strong wave approaching Central American has a low pressure disturbance ahead of the waves axis that is producing strong showers and storm with gusty winds.  This is a potential for flash flooding and deadly mudslides to occur.  Due to the proximity to land formation chance are Low 0%.

A trough of low pressure over Northern Florida is still enhancing storms over Florida today as it tracks north-northeastward.  A Flood Watch is in effect today as some of these training storms could produce localized flooding in those areas with weak drainage system.

RTW