..FRANKLIN AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE UPDATE AUG 21, 2023..

 

Tropical Storm Franklin is not looking as organized as it did overnight. Now the clouds have been warming as upper-level westerly wind shear is over the storm. However, forecast models suggest that upper-level shear will decrease during the next 24-48 hours, which could allow the storm to strengthen some on approach to the island. Franklin will pose a life-threatening flash flood and mud slide threat for Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Franklin seems to have slowed down some due to weak steering currents to the north of Franklin. Franklin is forecast to turn northwest, north, then north-east over the Atlantic by Thursday.  A slow-moving Franklin is not a good scenario for Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Latest satellite shows storms being shoved southward off the northern coast of Columbia. 

Stay tuned to the NHC for the latest updates on the tropics.

RTW

Ensemble model run.

Ensemble model run.

Guidance Models

Intensity Models

EURO ENSEMBLE HAS A WIDE SPREAD HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 

ON THIS 06Z MODEL RUN.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the Gulf of Mexico is continuing to track slowly westward toward the Texas coast. This system is moving through a small area of favorable wind shear. However, upper-level shear is forecast to increase along the Texas coast. PTC could become a tropical depression or tropical storm before making landfall along the Texas-Mexico border. Flooding will be the main problem with this storm.

RTW

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador